Thu Nov 20, 2008 06:03 AM CST GENERAL OPENING CALL Corn 6 to 8 lower, Soybeans 17 to 20 lower, and Wheat 6 to 8 lower.

6:00 AM e-CBOT Corn 8 lower, soybeans 18 1/2 lower, wheat 7 3/4 lower. The full weight of the sinking Dow Jones seems to be coming to bear on the grain markets, with soybeans posting solid double-digit losses in the overnight session while corn and wheat where off about 8 cents. Selling was seen in most commodities with the energy complex lower again as well. Crude oil dipped to a new low of $51.97.

OUTSIDE MARKETS The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 424 points lower Wednesday, moving back below the 8,000 mark. The overnight session saw Dow Jones futures trade about 100 points lower, indicating the stock market could stay under pressure Thursday. Asian markets were lower with the Nikkei down 570.18 points. European markets are also lower. The overnight crude oil market was $1.27 lower at $52.35 after posting a new low of $51.97. Brent crude was $.89 lower at $50.83. Gold futures are $8.80 higher at $744.80 while the U.S. dollar index is down .088 at 87.711. Soybeans at the Chinese Dalian exchange were mixed while Malaysian palm oil futures are lower.

BULL BEAR 1) Bullish corn traders are having a hard time finding a hook to hang their coat on. This could leave them standing out in the cold Thursday. 1) In contrast to wheat and soybeans, the corn market is expected to see yet another bearish weekly export sales and shipment report Thursday. This could keep the front-month December contract pressing toward price support at the lower end of its recent trading range. 2) The weekly export sales and shipment report is expected to be bullish for soybeans Thursday, possibly sparking renewed commercial buying interest that will be evident in the weakening carry of the futures spreads. 2) Spillover pressure from the outside markets should keep soybeans on the defensive Thursday, just as it did in the overnight session. 3) Wheat could also see a bullish weekly export sales and shipment report, possibly sparking increased commercial buying interest and maybe a light round of noncommercial short-covering. 3) Export numbers can be what they are, but until the world wheat situation begins to tighten it will be difficult for the wheat market to find much buying enthusiasm.



See Grain Archives for more information on the fundamental situation in grains. See the DTN Ag Weather Brief for complete market weather comments.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS CORN Once again outside markets should have a heavy influence on the direction of the corn market. With the Dow Jones continuing its dive and the energy complex sinking, there is little reason to think corn will trade higher Thursday. Fundamental traders are bracing for another round of bearish news with the release of the weekly export sales and shipment report. Pre-report sales estimates are for 350,000 mt (13.8 mb) to 555,000 mt (21.7 mb) as compared to the 732,800 mt (28.8 mb) needed this week to stay on pace with USDA's projected 1.9 bb. Shipments are also running behind pace this year and need to see 964,000 mt (38 mb) this week to get back on pace.

SOYBEANS As with corn, the weight of the outside markets should keep soybeans under pressure Thursday. However, the market could see some buying tied to fundamentals if another round of bullish export news is forthcoming in the weekly export sales and shipment report. Pre-report sales estimates are for 450,000 mt (16.5 mb) to 800,000 mt (29.4 mb) as compared to the 289,100 mt (10.6 mb) needed this week to stay on pace with USDA's projection of 1.02 bb. Shipments have also been strong with only 513,000 mt (18.9 mb) needed this week to remain on pace.

WHEAT Without the support of the other grains it is unlikely wheat will be able to rally on its own. The carry in the futures spreads continues to indicate a bearish supply-and-demand situation that hangs over this market like an anchor. Wheat could see a bullish weekly export sales and shipment report with pre-report sales estimates between 350,000 mt (12.9 mb) and 550,000 mt (20.2 mb) as compared to the 267,400 mt (9.8 mb) needed this week to stay on pace with USDA's projection of 1 bb. Shipments are also running ahead of projections with only 436,200 mt (16 mb) needed this week to maintain this pace.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day Corn: $3.49 -$0.01 -$0.30 (Dec) $0.00 Soybeans: $8.39 -$0.04 -$0.58 (Jan) $0.01 SRW Wheat: $3.68 -$0.04 -$1.59 (Dec) -$0.01 HRW Wheat: $4.94 -$0.01 -$0.66 (Dec) $0.00 HRS Wheat: $6.16 -$0.08 $0.12 (Dec) $0.04