6:00 AM GENERAL OPENING CALL
Corn 6 to 8 lower, soybeans 18 to 20 lower, wheat 3 to 5 lower.
6:00 AM e-CBOT
Corn 6 3/4 lower (September), Soybeans 18 1/2 lower (November), Wheat 3 1/2 lower (September). After seeing solid follow-through buying to start the overnight session selling in soybeans gained momentum late as contracts posted sharp double-digit losses. This squashed any hope of buying enthusiasm in corn and soybeans as well. Additional pressure came from outside markets where the U.S. dollar index was higher while metals and energies were lower.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
The Dow Joes Industrial Average closed 57.06 points higher Wednesday at 8,504.06. The overnight session saw the Dow Jones futures trade 48 points lower, indicating the market could see renewed selling interest Thursday. Asian markets were mostly lower with the Nikkei down 63.78 points. European markets are also mostly lower. The overnight crude oil market was $1.05 lower at $68.26 while Brent crude was $.89 lower at $67.90. Gold futures are $7.30 lower at $934.10 while the U.S. dollar index is .336 higher at 79.970. Soybeans at the Chinese Dalian exchange were higher while the Malaysian palm oil market was lower.
NOTICE:
The electronic trading hours for CBOT grains, oilseeds and ethanol contracts will expand beginning July 1. Trade will run from 6 p.m. to 7:15 a.m. Chicago time, Sunday through Friday.
DTN will adjust publish times for Early Word Opening Grains accordingly. We will publish a first take by 6 a.m. By 7:25 a.m. we will update that file with the closes from the electronic overnight session.
| |
BULL |
|
BEAR |
| 1) |
Corn doesn't want to rally at this point, but if soybeans see a reversal from overnight trade and move higher into the weekend, corn contracts could follow. |
1) |
Weather forecasts remain bearish for corn. |
| 2) |
The weekly export sales and shipment report is expected to be bullish for soybeans once again. |
2) |
The Fourth of July holiday is often the pivot point in soybeans where the market turns from bullish to bearish. |
| 3) |
Scattered showers over parts of the Southern Plains could slow winter wheat harvest over the three-day holiday weekend. |
3) |
The global wheat supply and demand situation remains bearish. |
| |
|
|
|
See Grain Archives for more information on the fundamental situation in grains. See the DTN Ag Weather Brief for complete market weather comments.
CORN
Despite the modestly higher close in corn Wednesday, the path of least resistance remains down. Traders will take note of weather forecasts and weekly export sales and shipment numbers before heading to the sidelines in front of a three-day holiday weekend. The DTN/Meteorlogix weekend forecast continues to call for favorable conditions over much of the Corn Bel, meaning warm and dry weather with a few scattered showers mixed in. Weekly export sales and shipments need to come in bullish Thursday to give the market a chance at posting higher numbers heading into the weekend. Corn needs to see sales of 137,800 mt (5.4 mb) and shipments of 1,045,000 mt (41.1 mb) to stay on pace with USDA's projection of 1.75 bb. There were no deliveries posted against the July contract leaving the total at zero.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans posted a furious rally Wednesday as commercial traders stormed back to the market with a vengeance following Tuesday's curious quarterly stocks number. However, the Fourth of July holiday is usually a pivotal time for soybeans as the seasonal uptrend tends to come to an end, replaced by a seasonal downtrend. It is possible that the market has priced in the short-supply situation and strong demand with the recent move in the July to November futures spread to an inverse greater than $2.40. Traders will keep an eye on the weekly export sales and shipment report for signs of continued Chinese demand. Weekly sales need to come in at 17,200 mt (.6 mb) and shipments 369,900 mt (13.6 mb) for the market to remain on pace with USDA's record projection of 1.25 bb. There were no deliveries posted against the July soybean contract leaving the total at zero.
WHEAT
Heading into the three-day holiday weekend, weather over the winter wheat harvest area is expected to see some scattered showers, delaying progress. This could provide light support to the market Thursday, though all three exchanges will likely be under pressure from spillover selling tied to the other grains and action in outside markets. Weekly export sales and shipments are expected to be bearish once again with sales of 415,800 mt (15.3 mb) and shipments of 483,700 mt (17.8 mb) needed this week to keep the market on pace with USDA's projection of 900 mb. Deliveries against the July Chicago contract were large once again in front of the change in allowable vomitoxin specifications that take effect in September. Another 4,842 contracts were reported putting total deliveries at 16,188 contracts.
| DTN Cash |
Change From |
National |
Contract |
Change from |
| Commodity |
Index |
Prev Day |
Avg. Basis |
Month |
Prev Day |
| Corn: |
$3.27 |
$0.04 |
-$0.30 |
(Sept) |
$0.02 |
| Soybeans: |
$11.91 |
$0.36 |
$0.31 |
(Aug) |
-$0.05 |
| SRW Wheat: |
$4.11 |
-$0.01 |
-$1.25 |
(Sept) |
$0.04 |
| HRW Wheat: |
$5.10 |
-$0.04 |
-$0.64 |
(Sept) |
$0.02 |
| HRS Wheat: |
$6.02 |
-$0.01 |
-$0.24 |
(Sept) |
$0.07 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom
(PH)
© Copyright 2009 DTN. All rights reserved.
